Home prices are going to drop – Pictured: Homes in Celebration District, Orlando, FL. – Courtesy: Shutterstock – Image by Box Lab
After several years of decline, fresh estimates from the Realtor.com® 2026 national housing forecast indicate that home prices in Florida will likely continue to decline next year.
In 2026, median sales prices for existing homes and condominiums in Florida’s eight largest metro areas are expected to decline by an average of 1.9 percent, far less than the 2.2 percent positive rise predicted overall.
Only Miami, one of the top Florida markets, is predicted to see a 1.1 percent increase in housing prices next year.
The most severe price drops are anticipated in Gulf Coast markets, where Cape Coral, North Port, and Tampa are predicted to see falls of 10.2 percent, 8.9 percent, and 3.6 percent, respectively.
The estimate comes after the Florida market has been poor for a number of years; in the first half of 2025, statewide median listing prices were down 6 percent from the same time in 2023. According to data from Realtor.com, the trend has been mostly driven by declining condo prices.
According to Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com, “Florida has had a very different story than the national market over the past several years and a much different outlook.” “The main driver of price softness in Florida over the past several years is a growing supply of homes for sale at the same time that demand for those homes has weakened a bit.”
One significant element influencing demand has been the rising ancillary costs of homeownership in Florida, such as skyrocketing insurance premiums and high homeowners association dues, particularly in the condo market.
In an effort to address the growing expenses of house ownership in the state, Governor Ron DeSantis has recently advocated for the removal of property taxes on owner-occupied residences.
According to a recent analysis by Realtor.com, removing all homeowner taxes in Florida would instantly increase the value of owner-occupied properties by 7 percent to 9 percent. However, no such ballot initiative has been completed yet, and such a move would require a state constitutional amendment supported by voters.
According to Berner, the recent high rate of new construction in the Sunshine State and the fall in remote working have also affected housing supply and demand, slowing demand throughout the Sun Belt.
“These trends are likely to continue into 2026, though relief from high mortgage rates may help to get renters into the for-sale market as first-time homebuyers and boost demand for homes,” according to him. “At the same time, expect builders to respond to these price cues and slow down new-home construction in the state, which will prevent the imbalance between supply and demand from becoming more pronounced.”
Florida prices are declining because of condo difficulties.
When Florida’s listing price trends are broken down into single-family homes and condominiums, it is evident that the state’s sizable condo market is the primary cause of overall reductions.
While single-family house prices decreased by only 3.6 percent in October, Florida’s median listing prices for condos fell by an astounding 10.8 percent from the same month in 2023.
Condo prices fell 9.3 percent over the two-year period, while single-family homes had a 2.5 percent decline on a price-per-square-foot basis, which is a stronger indicator of underlying home values.
Even though those numbers support the long-term deterioration in both Florida real estate market divisions, they also indicate that condos have seen the biggest drops, possibly as a result of new regulations that have increased HOA special assessment costs.
Nevertheless, Florida property values are still far higher than they were five years ago. Condo and single-family home prices have increased by 26 percent and 34 percent, respectively, on a square foot basis since 2020.
Meanwhile, over the previous five years, Florida’s median incomes have increased by an estimated 27 percent. According to their listing price, condos are therefore, at least in comparison to pre-COVID-19 wages, more cheap. (Increased HOA dues could drastically alter that calculation.)
Even with recent price drops in the state, single-family homes are still more expensive for the average buyer than they were prior to 2020.
According to a Realtor.com analysis, the average Florida single-family home was offered for over six times the state’s expected median household income in 2025. That exceeds the 5.6-fold average ratio observed between 2016 and 2019.
In contrast, prior to the pandemic, Florida condos used to list for 4.6 times the median income. Condos in the state are currently comparatively more affordable, since that ratio is predicted to drop to roughly 4.4 by 2025.
However, the rising auxiliary expenses of homeownership may more than offset the affordability gains from declining prices for Florida homebuyers, a pattern that could continue to impact buyer desire into 2026.
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Mike has more than 30 years of experience in marketing and public relations. He once owned his own agency and has worked with some of the largest brands in the world.
